Central North Airport Group

Wide-moat Mexican airport-concession operator with top-decile margins and returns, but a real one-year traffic/revenue stall holds it just below A.

Strengths

• Dominant concession monopoly: operating margin 98th pct, ROIC 96th, ROA 96th, FCF margin 95th — exceptional, durable profitability
• Strong cash generation (FCF 78th pct) funding committed master-development capex with VINCI (SETA) technical sponsorship

Risks

• Revenue fell ~15% (12th pct) and net income ~20% — a genuine growth stall (Acapulco reconstruction, traffic softness)
• Regulatory/tariff regime, Mexican electricity-law reform threatening its self-supply wind PPA (expires 2028), and U.S.-Mexico cross-border travel sensitivity

Notable findings

• Revenue declineRevenue -15.0% YoY
• China exposuregovernment may adopt trade-related or national security measures, including tariffs, import restrictions, export controls, or other actions affecting Mexico or certain industries